The global personal ID market is entering a higher-growth phase, expanding from $11.8 billion in 2026 to $16.6 billion by 2031. Underlying that growth is a structural transformation. The industry is shifting from physical document manufacturing towards integrated identity ecosystems. Physical credentials – passports, national IDs, driving licences – remain the root of trust, but digital ID wallets and verifiable credentials are increasingly absorbing everyday authentication use cases, giving rise to a hybrid model. Long-term competitive advantage will concentrate in digital identity infrastructure, biometric authentication, and secure interoperable platforms, with biometrics, machine-readable features, and secure chip technologies emerging as the highest-value layers.
The latest research from Smithers, published in
The Future of Personal ID to 2031, delivers the definitive analysis of where this market is heading and what it means for the organisations shaping it. The report maps the technologies, end-use segments, and regional markets driving the next wave of growth. It examines the risks that could disrupt progress, the regulatory forces sustaining demand, and the competitive dynamics separating market leaders from those at risk of commoditisation.
To explore the report’s central findings, we spoke with its author, James Wojtyk – researcher and strategist with over 25 years of experience spanning scientific research, technology innovation, and strategic leadership across Canadian academic, government, and industrial sectors. As former Head of Research and Development in Currency at the Bank of Canada, he has worked at the sharp end of the counterfeit arms race: integrating advanced technologies into banknotes, advising on emerging threats, and fostering international collaborations.
Here he sets out why growth is accelerating into a higher gear after 2026, what nano-optic and smart material technologies mean for physical document security, and why the companies most at risk are those still defining themselves as document manufacturers rather than identity ecosystem providers.
The report signals a step-change in market growth after 2026 – from around 4.8% to 7.1% CAGR. What’s driving that acceleration?
What we’re seeing is a structural shift: the acceleration after 2026 reflects a market that is moving beyond its traditional core of physical document production into a broader, higher-value identity services model. Governments around the world are simultaneously upgrading legacy credential systems and laying the groundwork for digital identity infrastructure. Those two waves are arriving at the same time, which is what’s pushing growth into a higher gear.
As physical and digital converge, the two become complementary rather than separate, driving demand for new infrastructure and real-time authentication capabilities. Use cases grow beyond document issuance into banking, mobility, e-government, and access management, multiplying the addressable market.
Smart materials and nano-optic technologies are described in the report as the next evolution of physical document security. What’s driving this shift?
As counterfeiters gain access to increasingly sophisticated reproduction technologies the security printing industry has to stay meaningfully ahead. Nano-photonic effects, embedded forensic taggants, responsive materials: these aren’t incremental improvements on existing features. They create authentication properties that are extremely difficult to replicate because they operate at a physical scale and complexity that industrial counterfeiting cannot easily reach. What’s equally important is the use case these technologies serve. Durable physical credentials remain the first line of authentication in border control, law enforcement, and offline verification environments – situations where you cannot depend on network connectivity or digital infrastructure. Smart materials ensure that the physical document remains a robust, trustworthy artefact even as the ecosystem around it becomes increasingly digital.
The report shows biometrics as the fastest-growing technology segment, going from $471M to $1.24B. What is driving that growth?
Biometric enrolment and authentication are becoming mandatory in national ID and credentialing programs, with governments investing heavily in secure issuance systems capable of large-scale credential management. Meanwhile airports, banks, and e-government platforms are seeking fast, user-friendly verification systems that reduce friction without compromising security; and the growing sophistication of fraud and identity-related attacks is compelling organisations to deploy stronger authentication methods – biometrics are the most reliable option at scale. Facial recognition has emerged as the dominant modality given its speed, scalability, and contactless nature.
The 12.2% post-2026 CAGR we’re projecting reflects the fact that emerging markets are still in early adoption – there’s enormous volume still to come from national ID enrolment programmes across Africa and Asia – while mature markets are deepening integration into border systems and digital authentication frameworks.
By 2031 you expect government buyers to prioritise lifecycle cost, interoperability, and digital delivery. What does that mean practically for how procurement will change?
It means the nature of competitive advantage in this industry is fundamentally changing. Demand remains structurally strong due to government needs, but procurement is constrained by inflation, fiscal pressure, geopolitics, and digital substitution. The procurement conversations of 2031 will favour lower lifecycle cost, interoperability, digital delivery, and multi-use credentials. Governments are running under significant fiscal pressure through this period – IMF projections show public debt rising in most major economies. The suppliers best positioned are those delivering higher-value security features through fraud reduction, automation, and longer credential life.
What is the single most important piece of advice for companies operating in the personal ID space right now?
The companies that will define this market in 2031 are identity ecosystem providers. The document is still important – it remains the foundational trust anchor – but the value is increasingly in the services wrapped around it: enrolment, digital issuance, authentication, lifecycle management, and trusted attribute verification. The institutions that survive technological transitions are the ones asking, “What problem does our customer fundamentally need solved, and are we building the right capabilities to solve it in the next decade?” For the identity market, that fundamental need is trustworthy, interoperable, user-controlled identity – digital and physical – and the companies that can credibly deliver will lead the next phase of growth.
